Helping you navigate uncertain waters.
Marinheiro reads Brazil's political, economic and regulatory horizon so that companies, chambers and investors can decide with clarity.
In Brazil, policy moves faster than most strategies are revised. The companies that do well are the ones that see the current before it reaches them.
Intelligence built to be used in a meeting room.
Every deliverable answers one question: what does this change mean for your business, and what should you do about it?
Scenario Notes
Structured scenarios for a specific event or decision, with probabilities, triggers and business implications.
Risk Matrix
A map of political, regulatory and economic risks ranked by likelihood and impact on your operation.
Monitoring Brief
A recurring reading of the signals that matter to your sector, delivered on a fixed schedule.
One horizon, read from different decks.
Bilateral chambers of commerce
What should our member companies expect from Brazil's next policy cycle?
Law firms
Which regulatory and political shifts will reshape our clients' exposure?
Mining and energy
How do trade policy and resource nationalism affect our projects and offtake?
Financial institutions
Which political scenarios move Brazilian assets, and how likely is each one?
Companies entering Brazil
What do we need to understand about the country before we commit capital?
In short, an engagement looks like this.
Read the horizon
We learn your operation, exposure and the decisions ahead.
Chart the course
We deliver the analysis: scenarios, risks and clear implications for your decision.
Keep watch
We monitor the signals and update the reading as conditions change.
The Lookout Method.
A four-stage framework that moves from broad scanning to a specific recommendation. Each stage is documented, so every conclusion can be traced back to its evidence.
Horizon
Map the forces behind a question.
Soundings
Track the indicators that show where each force is moving.
Bearings
Build scenarios with probabilities and triggers.
Course
Turn each scenario into a clear recommendation.
The Marinheiro Brief.
Analysis on Brazil's geopolitical and economic landscape, sent to your inbox.